The global auto analyst team at Morgan Stanley has done some crystal ball gazing and put together a number of scenarios for how the auto industry is going to look in 2022. 摩根士丹利(MorganStanley)的全球汽车分析师团队近日对全球汽车业的未来做了一些展望,现在就让我们看一下2022年的汽车业会是什么样子。
'The risks of a price war in China are building,' said Max Warburton, Bernstein's auto analyst. 'Too many companies are dependent on China right now. Price competition would intensify if sales continue to grow at the current pace.' Bernstein的汽车分析师MaxWarburton认为:一场中国价格战正在酝酿之中,太多公司依赖中国市场,如果销售继续按照现在的速度增长,价格竞争会更激烈。
For the time being, I think you're going to see Japanese automakers 'sales in China down by 20 to 30 percent, said Koji Endo, auto analyst at Advanced Research Japan. 就目前而言,我认为你会看到日本汽车制造商在中国的销量下降了20%至30%,在日本高级研究所的汽车分析师远藤浩二说。
Tatsuo Yoshida, auto analyst at Barclays, also believes Japanese manufacturers are at last addressing their deficiencies in China after concerns about intellectual property protection had for years dissuaded them from developing more vehicles there. 巴克莱(Barclays)汽车分析师吉田龙夫(TatsuoYoshida)也认为,由于担忧知识产权难以保护,多年来日本汽车制造商不愿在华研发更多汽车,但它们现在终于开始应对自己在中国的不足。
'Fuyao will absolutely benefit more'from rising sales to international car makers, predicts Zhu Xuedong, another Industrial Securities auto analyst. 兴业证券另一位汽车行业分析师朱学东表示,随着更多产品出口到海外汽车市场,福耀玻璃肯定会从中受益。
Zheng Jun, auto analyst at CITIC Securities, says auto assets currently up for sale are not a good match for Chinese companies anyway. citicsecurities汽车分析师郑钧表示,不管怎么说,目前待售的汽车资产与中国企业都不太匹配。
Bill Russo, auto analyst and former head of Chrysler in China, says the Volt has the potential to be the first true high volume electric vehicle to launch to date. 汽车业分析师、克莱斯勒(Chrysler)中国公司前负责人罗威(BillRusso)表示,伏特有可能成为迄今为止推出的第一款真正大规模生产的电动车。
However, Klaus paur, auto analyst at Ipsos in Shanghai, does not expect a "significant direct impact" on car sales from either lower interest rates or fuel price cuts. 不过,益普索(ipsos)驻上海的汽车业分析师包亦农(klauspaur)并不预期降息或油价下调会对汽车销售产生“显著的直接影响”。
'I see a bright future for Chinese auto parts,'says Charles Cheung, an analyst at Citigroup in Hong Kong. 花旗集团(Citigroup)驻香港分析师张文龙(CharlesCheung)认为,中国汽车零部件企业前景光明;
One London-based auto analyst said: "I have hedge fund managers literally in tears on the phone." 一位伦敦的汽车业分析师表示:“我遇到了确实在电话中流泪的基金经理。”
It's the kind of thing envisioned by Deutsche Bank auto analyst Rod Lache. 这也是德意志银行(DeutscheBank)汽车业分析师罗德?拉奇(RodLache)预想的结果。
"The same car," says Jonathan Banks, NADA's executive auto analyst. “就是同一辆车”美国汽车经销商协会高级汽车分析师说到。
Namrita Chow, auto analyst at IHS Automotive in Shanghai said: "unless they categorically state that this Law applies to all government levels, the chances are that ministers in Ningxia for example, will still crave an Audi model like their compatriots in Beijing." ihsautomotive驻上海的namritachow表示:“除非明确规定这个采购目录适用于各级政府,否则政府领导(比如宁夏的部级干部)很可能与他们在中央政府的同僚一样,仍希望享受奥迪轿车待遇。”
George Yin, an auto analyst at bocom international securities in Beijing, said the effect of the strikes on Honda should be short-lived as workers had now returned to work. 交银国际证券(bocominternationalsecurities)驻北京汽车业分析师尹国辉(georgeyin)表示,罢工对本田的影响应该是短期的,因为工人现在已经复工。
"The Big Three are giving customers phenomenal deals, and the buyer still goes down to the import dealers," said Shearson Lehman auto analyst Joseph Philippi. 休顿汽车分析师菲利比表示,三大制造商提供消费者极为优惠的交易条件,但买车的人依然投向进口商的怀抱。